Posted by: secretperson | May 5, 2010

Final Polls Point to Tory Win

But do they point to a majority? The final polls before voting are out. The next ones we see will be exit polls, then final results.

C LD L
Yougov 35 28 28
Angus Reid 36 29 24
Populus 37 27 28
Opinium 35 26 27
Harris 35 27 29
ICM 36 26 28
ComRes 37 28 28

Know that won’t point to a majority on the Uniform National Swing models, but fivethirtyeight.com‘s more sophisticated model had the Conservatives on 308 seats on 35.2%. Not sure how these new polls should be weighted to combine them, but a simple average of polls gives the Tories 35.9%. That’s got to be right on the line for a majority, and if not certainly enough to attempt a minority government, perhaps with Unionist support. And polls have historically underestimated Tory votes.

Of course it all gets finalised tomorrow. Get out and vote for anyone but Brown!

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