Posted by: secretperson | September 25, 2008

Conference Poll Bounce For Brown

Gordon Brown’s speech and the Labour party conference in general have boosted Labour in the polls from 20% behind the Conservatives to only 10% behind. The only problem for Brown is the Tories have a conference still to come, and will no doubt be planning a bounce back of their own.

A year ago, Labour were ahead in the polls by about 8 points, and planning an election which Brown bottled, now called ‘the election that never was’. Then the Tory conference came and shot them into the lead, with George Osborne’s announcement on raising inheritance tax thresholds a seeming highlight. At the time it gave the Tories a strong lead, but Labour commentators weren’t impressed.

I remember reading at the time that polls changed all the time and meant nothing. That Cameron needed a two digit lead. Then that he needed a sustained two digit lead. That the Conservatives needed to be polling more than 40% to have a chance.

Well a year on, the Labour party on a high after a reasonably succesful conference. Brown, for the moment safe, from what may come to be known as ‘the leadership challenge that never was’. And the polls are showing the Conservatives with a two digit lead, and polling over 40%.

The question is will Brown’s poll momentum close the gap as Cameron’s momentum opened it up last year? Or will the Tory conference reverse the swing and confirm a Conservative government in the next election as all but inevitable?

All depends what Cameron and Osborne have got up their sleeves for Birmingham.

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Responses

  1. Perhaps it’s time to play the English card?

    If the Conservatives:

    Abolished the English regions project
    Scrapped the Barnett Formula
    Gave the English a vote on an EP

    That would give them a massive lead I reckon.

    Then again just committing to a referendum on EU membership would probably do the trick too.

    Sadly I can’t see any of that coming from the Eton maffia.

  2. I think if anyone has a ‘critical moment’ in terms of their political ambitions, it is David Cameron. For too long he has kept the public wanting and waiting to find out what his party stands for, their values and their commitments to the public. It is now time to act.


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